DIY Investor Magazine
|
Oct 2017
7
Hélène Ploix of Genesis Emerging Markets
says
that there are plenty of reasons to be wary in the short-
term in emerging markets, including a fear that China’s
economy is less healthy than it appears, but that overall
economic growth has stabilised after many years of
decline.
COMMODITIES AND NATURAL RESOURCES
Geoff Burns of City Natural Resources
is concerned
about increasing geo-political risk and rising debt but
sees positive impacts for commodities and natural
resources from China’s ‘one-belt-one-road’ initiative;
his managers are encouraged that major mining
corporations are showing restraint in the face of rising
prices but think oil is range-bound.
DEBT
David Warr of Hadrian’s Wall Secured
says that SME
lending is holding up despite the challenges facing
the UK economy;
Starwood European Real Estate
Finance
draws conclusions from recent research
published on the UK property market - existing buildings
can get cheap finance but development finance is much
harder to come by.
Blackstone/GSO Loan Finance
notes that defaults are
low, CLO issuance has been high and they think senior
loans are well positioned; however, high yield bonds
offer no more yield than senior loans but are riskier.
CVC Credit Opportunities
lists a number of factors that
could create volatility in credit markets and believes that
inflation will continue to rise;
ICG Longbow
thinks REITs
and others are calling the top of the London property
market where cheap finance seems to be available.
PROPERTY
Valuations are challenged by hurdles such as Brexit,
commentators say focus on property’s income returns.
Industrial property and property outside London might
be more attractive.
Vikram Lall of F&C UK Real Estate
says the outlook
is dominated by Brexit but thinks property income
should prove defensive; his manager concurs, drawing
attention to the possibility of interest rate rises.
Andrew Wilson of UK Commercial Property
is
comforted by lower debt levels than in 2007/2008, low
levels of development, low vacancy levels and liquidity
in the market; investors are becoming more risk averse.
Regional REIT points out that industrial property is
forecast to experience the highest rental growth in 2017;
Martin Moore, chairman of Secure Income REIT, says
valuations have risen to a point where it is hard to find
attractive acquisitions.
Gary Kennedy of Green REIT
is enthused about the
Irish economy; his managers attribute this in part to
Brexit, which is attracting firms looking for an English-
speaking country within the EU, but investors are
favouring prime property.
Elsewhere on QuotedData,
Real Estate Investors
which is focused on property in and around
Birmingham, goes through the prospects for that part
of the market – they are upbeat;
GCP Student Living
explains the dynamics of the student accommodation
market, with particular attention to London.
Impact
Healthcare REIT
looks at the drivers of demand for
residential care homes in the UK and
Macau Property
Opportunities
takes an in-depth look at Macau’s
economy and property market.
Also on
- comment on Asia from
Schroder
Asia Total Return
on the Korean stock market’s
remarkable resilience, on the US from
James Ferguson
of North American Income.
BlackRock Eastern European
thinks valuations look
attractive and
BlackRock Latin American
laments
Brazil’s ongoing political crisis. Qatar Investment Fund
gives a detailed account of the impact of the spat
between
Qatar and its Arab neighbours
and there is
additional focus on Vietnam, infrastructure, and private
equity.
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